dashboard built 2026-07-30 11:37

Sweeps Backtest (SBT)

2023-07-24 to 2026-07-22

4536 configs: concentration_cap × risk_aversion (λ) × optimizer_lookback (378 combinations) replayed across all 7 max_watchlist_size curation sets, plus min_trade_size_frac swept as a 4th axis on the canonical watchlist (6 values). All 7 watchlist sizes are the SAME geosplit thesis (one coherent curation family), so cross-size comparisons in plots 1-3 are clean. These knobs touch only the mean-variance replay, not the curator, so the whole grid costs $0 (no LLM — the curations already exist; only expanding max_watchlist_size itself, section 11, re-curates). Metrics are benchmark-relative: Information Ratio = annualized active return ÷ tracking error vs SPY (consistency of beating the benchmark). SPY returned +71% over the window. ★ = best in column.

Look-ahead-clean. The compounder gridsearch on the geosplit curations: the curator read archived Wayback ledes where available (~46% of articles) else title-only, with the biased live ledes ignored, so each rebalance saw only period-correct news. The curator-model comparison (§12, kimi vs sonnet vs deepseek, ranked by a blind Opus soundness judge) sits at the bottom. Canonical config: mws 16 / cap 0.25 / λ 3.0 / 30d. All in-sample — these rank candidates to forward-test, not an optimum.

Parameter settings

The four FREE swept knobs (every combination on the canonical watchlist = 378 configs) and the values considered. min_trade_size_frac is swept only on the canonical watchlist (mws 16); every other size is held at its live value. All other optimizer / backtest params are held at the investor_profile.md values — these knobs only re-weight the same curations.

parametervalues sweptcurrent (profile)
concentration_cap0.1, 0.25, 0.333, 0.5, 0.667, 0.8, 1.00.25
risk_aversion (λ)0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0, 4.03.0
optimizer_lookback (days)14, 30, 60, 90, 120, 15030
min_trade_size_frac (canonical mws)0.0, 0.025, 0.05, 0.1, 0.15, 0.20.05
max_watchlist_size (re-curation, §11)4, 6, 8, 12, 16, 20, 2416

1. Return vs drawdown

The horizontal axis is max drawdown — the portfolio's biggest peak-to-trough loss as a fraction of its running peak (the single worst high-to-low decline over the window); further right = deeper loss. The vertical axis is annualized return, so upper-left is best (high return, shallow drawdown). Each point is one cap/λ/lookback config; color = max_watchlist_size (4, 6, 8, 12, 16, 20, 24 shown), so every watchlist size contributes its own 378-config cloud (total 2646 points; min_trade pinned to the live 0.05 here — it is swept separately in section 9). Within a cloud the free knobs move a point deterministically; jumping between colors ALSO swaps the underlying curation, and those kimi re-curations swing 2-5× on their own — so read cross-color separation as parameter effect + curation-draw noise, not a clean mws response. The canonical live config (watchlist 16) is the black star.

2. Return vs L1 churn

Same points (all watchlist sizes), risk axis replaced by L1 churn = annualized one-way turnover (%/yr): how much of the portfolio is traded per year (Σ|Δweight| from share changes; drift between rebalances is not a trade). 100%/yr = the whole book turned over once a year. This is the industry-standard churn measure. Trading is free in an IRA, so read it as stability/robustness, not cost: lower churn = less noise-chasing / less overfit, so upper-left (high return, low churn) is the sweet spot. Current config: 1074%/yr.

3. Return vs L2 course correction

Same idea, but churn is the L2 (Euclidean) path length the portfolio was dragged along through weight-space (√Σ Δweight² per rebalance, summed & annualized) — your “total course-correction”. Vs L1, it weights concentrated single-name rotations more heavily. It ranks these configs almost identically to L1 (correlation 0.95), which is the useful takeaway: the two norms agree, so the churn ordering is robust. Current config: 1072/yr.

4. Recommended settings

Read straight off plots 1-3: keep only configs in the safe corner — |maxDD| < 55% AND L1 < 1500 AND L2 < 2000 AND ann > 80% (shallow drawdown, low churn, real return). 662 of 4536 configs survive (by watchlist size — 4:42, 6:103, 8:29, 12:82, 16:100, 20:234, 24:72), listed once, sorted by plateau = ½·own IR + ½·mean(grid-neighbor IR) over the config's ±1-step cap/λ/lookback/min_trade neighbors. A lone in-sample spike (high IR, weak neighbors) sinks below a broad high plateau — the anti-overfit rank, since a robust region is likelier to hold FORWARD than a fragile peak. Gain/Pain = Schwager's Gain-to-Pain Ratio (total gain ÷ sum of all down-moves = profit factor − 1); unlike Calmar (worst single drawdown) it counts every loss, so it rewards greatest-gains-with-fewest-losses. ★ = best in that column among the survivors (eyeball the top plateau / IR / Gain-Pain / t-stat / Sharpe / Calmar / ann / shallowest-DD). min_trade_size_frac is swept as a 4th axis on the canonical watchlist (mws 16); every other size is held at the live 0.05. These stay in-sample — a forward-test shortlist, not an auto-switch. Note the live config (ws 16 0.25/3.0/30d/mt 0.05, dd 25% / L1 1074 / L2 1072) passes and is listed below (highlighted).

Show the recommended-settings table (662 configs)
#max_watchlist_sizeconcentration_capλlookbackmin_tradeplateauIRGain/Paint-statSharpeCalmarann ret%maxDDL1L2
1160.100.230d0.05+1.74 ★+1.84 ★0.27+3.2 ★1.98 ★3.62+82%-23%628545
2160.253.030d0.05 ← live+1.69+1.810.43+3.11.955.06+125%-25%10741072
3240.100.214d0.05+1.67+1.740.23+3.01.874.19+122%-29%1001674
4160.254.030d0.05+1.66+1.780.37+3.11.954.32+110%-25%10531037
5240.101.014d0.05+1.66+1.750.27+3.01.883.97+120%-30%931651
6240.100.514d0.05+1.65+1.690.20+2.91.833.99+118%-30%1022680
7160.252.530d0.05+1.65+1.750.38+3.01.884.59+121%-26%10581072
8240.100.530d0.05+1.64+1.740.23+3.01.904.58+138%-30%712582
9240.101.514d0.05+1.64+1.670.25+2.91.823.74+113%-30%1038690
10240.100.230d0.05+1.63+1.740.25+3.01.904.63+139%-30%686573
11160.252.030d0.05+1.63+1.720.42+3.01.864.64+123%-26%10711081
12240.100.814d0.05+1.63+1.660.34+2.91.803.82+114%-30%983668
13160.251.530d0.05+1.63+1.720.34+3.01.854.57+125%-27%10261063
14160.251.030d0.05+1.62+1.680.40+2.91.814.48+124%-28%10071078
15240.100.830d0.05+1.61+1.700.26+2.91.864.27+133%-31%720584
16160.333.030d0.05+1.61+1.690.39+2.91.833.78+129%-34%11811267
17160.250.830d0.05+1.60+1.650.44+2.91.794.43+121%-27%9281034
18160.332.530d0.05+1.60+1.670.39+2.91.803.61+132%-36%11981283
19160.250.530d0.05+1.59+1.660.35+2.91.794.44+122%-27%9511052
20240.101.030d0.05+1.59+1.650.23+2.91.824.17+126%-30%709583
21160.334.030d0.05+1.59+1.720.40+3.01.884.01+121%-30%11491196
22160.330.830d0.05+1.59+1.690.36+2.91.804.13+146%-35%11691302
23160.332.030d0.05+1.59+1.670.44+2.91.793.70+137%-37%11001247
24160.331.030d0.05+1.59+1.680.38+2.91.793.96+144%-36%12221327
25240.102.530d0.05+1.59+1.630.25+2.81.834.23+116%-27%702575
26240.101.530d0.05+1.59+1.670.22+2.91.844.27+127%-30%707583
27240.103.030d0.05+1.58+1.660.27+2.91.874.46+118%-26%692570
28240.102.014d0.05+1.58+1.610.22+2.81.763.46+102%-30%1016677
29160.250.230d0.05+1.58+1.660.41+2.91.794.47+124%-28%9661071
30160.331.530d0.05+1.57+1.630.44+2.81.753.60+135%-38%12131343
31240.102.030d0.05+1.56+1.590.24+2.81.794.14+117%-28%685567
32160.330.530d0.05+1.56+1.640.27+2.81.754.06+142%-35%11991341
33160.803.030d0.05+1.56+1.680.47+2.91.825.19+171%-33%14731884
34160.802.530d0.05+1.56+1.690.41+2.91.825.53 ★+181%-33%13701802
35160.673.030d0.05+1.55+1.670.48+2.91.814.87+163%-33%13621667
36160.672.530d0.05+1.54+1.650.38+2.91.794.83+166%-34%13471665
37240.102.514d0.05+1.53+1.550.24+2.71.723.25+95%-29%1010680
3860.252.514d0.05+1.52+1.580.39+2.71.883.19+87%-27%10751093
39160.802.030d0.05+1.52+1.640.37+2.81.775.16+182% ★-35%14711911
4060.253.014d0.05+1.52+1.570.32+2.71.893.03+85%-28%10401064
41240.104.030d0.05+1.51+1.540.29+2.71.753.50+102%-29%675558
42200.101.014d0.025+1.51+1.570.17+2.71.783.45+98%-28%954657
4360.252.014d0.05+1.51+1.530.40+2.71.843.11+85%-27%10811100
44200.100.514d0.025+1.51+1.570.12+2.71.773.31+99%-30%944659
45160.503.030d0.05+1.51+1.590.46+2.81.743.67+137%-37%12141469
46160.672.030d0.05+1.51+1.620.37+2.81.754.61+167%-36%13921729
47160.502.530d0.05+1.51+1.590.31+2.71.733.75+144%-38%12611515
48200.100.214d0.025+1.51+1.560.16+2.71.763.32+98%-30%987673
49160.804.030d0.05+1.50+1.640.47+2.81.804.84+148%-31%14751850
50200.100.814d0.025+1.50+1.550.21+2.71.763.25+97%-30%973671
51160.330.230d0.05+1.50+1.580.34+2.71.703.90+135%-35%11871341
5260.250.530d0.05+1.50+1.580.34+2.71.803.70+89%-24%709853
53160.674.030d0.05+1.50+1.620.60+2.81.784.48+143%-32%14081701
54200.100.514d0+1.50+1.560.20+2.71.763.31+96%-29%1306776
55200.101.014d0+1.49+1.570.20+2.71.783.44+96%-28%1304775
56240.103.014d0.05+1.49+1.470.27+2.51.652.97+88%-30%1021678
57200.100.214d0+1.49+1.550.19+2.71.753.32+96%-29%1317781
5860.250.230d0.05+1.49+1.560.35+2.71.793.61+89%-25%733865
59200.100.814d0+1.49+1.540.20+2.71.753.26+95%-29%1309778
6060.254.014d0.05+1.48+1.560.33+2.71.892.94+81%-28%10551076
61160.502.030d0.05+1.48+1.540.38+2.71.693.59+145%-40%12331515
62200.101.514d0.025+1.48+1.520.18+2.61.743.26+94%-29%922649
63160.504.030d0.05+1.48+1.560.43+2.71.733.50+126%-36%12791474
6460.251.514d0.05+1.48+1.490.30+2.61.793.04+83%-27%10751095
65240.104.014d0.05+1.48+1.530.22+2.61.713.41+88%-26%978659
66161.004.030d0.05+1.47+1.650.53+2.91.815.15+156%-30%14461945
6760.250.830d0.05+1.47+1.530.32+2.71.783.64+88%-24%738872
68160.501.530d0.05+1.47+1.560.28+2.71.693.76+155%-41%12461512
6960.250.214d0.05+1.47+1.470.31+2.61.742.95+83%-28%10821109
70160.501.030d0.05+1.47+1.540.36+2.71.673.90+162%-42%12181520
7160.251.030d0.05+1.47+1.540.34+2.71.803.66+88%-24%776889
72240.252.530d0.05+1.47+1.550.29+2.71.704.52+160%-35%11081073
73240.333.030d0.05+1.46+1.580.36+2.71.723.97+169%-42%12481300
74160.671.530d0.05+1.46+1.560.32+2.71.694.15+168%-40%13091669
75240.253.030d0.05+1.46+1.510.37+2.61.684.15+149%-36%11761107
7660.250.514d0.05+1.46+1.450.34+2.51.732.98+82%-27%10671097
77160.500.830d0.05+1.46+1.540.30+2.71.664.04+165%-41%12091531
78200.101.514d0+1.46+1.500.19+2.61.733.20+91%-29%1297775
7960.251.530d0.05+1.46+1.500.34+2.61.783.71+85%-23%763884
80240.254.030d0.05+1.46+1.530.34+2.71.713.74+134%-36%11981108
81200.100.214d0.05+1.45+1.530.16+2.71.733.25+102%-31%957663
82240.334.030d0.05+1.45+1.580.43+2.71.753.87+144%-37%12431267
83160.801.530d0.05+1.45+1.560.44+2.71.684.50+176%-39%14391898
84160.500.530d0.05+1.44+1.540.30+2.71.664.02+165%-41%11841509
85240.252.030d0.05+1.44+1.470.35+2.61.623.91+165%-42%11201117
8660.252.030d0.05+1.44+1.490.34+2.61.773.78+83%-22%726850
87200.102.014d0.025+1.44+1.500.14+2.61.733.25+92%-28%922649
8860.331.514d0.05+1.44+1.470.28+2.51.733.09+96%-31%13301406
89200.101.014d0.05+1.43+1.570.17+2.71.773.62+103%-29%913641
90120.332.030d0.05+1.43+1.490.22+2.61.673.58+126%-35%10811217
91240.252.014d0.05+1.43+1.400.30+2.41.553.46+127%-37%14321267
92160.671.030d0.05+1.43+1.510.24+2.61.644.02+169%-42%13491711
9360.332.014d0.05+1.43+1.460.38+2.51.743.24+94%-29%12411359
94240.251.514d0.05+1.42+1.400.23+2.41.543.22+133%-41%14871298
95240.332.530d0.05+1.42+1.500.28+2.61.653.78+160%-42%13551382
96240.251.530d0.05+1.42+1.450.35+2.51.593.47+162%-47%11341125
97200.102.014d0+1.42+1.480.19+2.61.713.17+89%-28%1297772
98120.332.530d0.05+1.42+1.510.17+2.61.693.38+124%-37%10601205
99120.333.030d0.05+1.42+1.530.21+2.61.723.75+121%-32%10851211
100200.100.814d0.05+1.42+1.530.20+2.61.733.36+101%-30%934654
101120.331.530d0.05+1.42+1.470.20+2.61.643.47+130%-37%11021226
102200.101.514d0.05+1.42+1.530.18+2.61.743.50+100%-29%891635
10360.330.230d0.05+1.41+1.480.37+2.61.693.46+98%-28%9291157
10460.331.014d0.05+1.41+1.450.42+2.51.712.89+94%-33%12181352
105240.674.030d0.05+1.41+1.490.35+2.61.653.92+157%-40%14441705
106120.501.530d0.05+1.41+1.520.12+2.61.654.50+163%-36%11911506
107200.100.514d0.05+1.41+1.500.11+2.61.713.31+99%-30%900638
108120.334.030d0.05+1.41+1.530.23+2.61.743.90+111%-28%10791177
10960.330.514d0.05+1.40+1.430.34+2.51.672.67+95%-35%13031414
110160.251.560d0.05+1.40+1.400.30+2.41.602.75+95%-35%657797
11160.330.214d0.05+1.40+1.410.36+2.41.652.63+94%-36%12161356
11260.330.814d0.05+1.40+1.410.33+2.41.672.72+92%-34%12211361
113160.670.830d0.05+1.40+1.480.20+2.61.603.80+168%-44%13851736
114240.504.030d0.05+1.40+1.470.51+2.51.643.49+145%-41%13701550
11540.802.014d0.05+1.39+1.410.31+2.41.614.02+129%-32%14701986
116120.501.030d0.05+1.39+1.490.24+2.61.624.49+165%-37%12101516
117160.500.230d0.05+1.39+1.480.28+2.61.613.80+156%-41%11561516
11860.330.530d0.05+1.39+1.410.33+2.41.633.18+92%-29%9991207
119240.250.214d0.05+1.39+1.340.28+2.31.482.63+128%-49%13451259
120240.252.514d0.05+1.39+1.350.26+2.31.513.11+118%-38%14641272
12160.332.514d0.05+1.39+1.400.28+2.41.683.00+87%-29%13581424
122200.102.514d0.025+1.38+1.420.20+2.51.672.92+81%-28%957660
12340.802.514d0.05+1.38+1.400.46+2.41.613.92+126%-32%14551983
124160.801.030d0.05+1.38+1.470.36+2.61.594.01+172%-43%13751862
125120.502.030d0.05+1.38+1.460.30+2.51.614.04+147%-36%12611542
126240.250.830d0.05+1.38+1.440.26+2.51.573.27+169%-52%11571157
127160.251.060d0.05+1.38+1.400.31+2.41.592.79+98%-35%669825
12860.330.830d0.05+1.38+1.410.33+2.41.633.18+92%-29%10121217
129240.332.030d0.05+1.38+1.450.46+2.51.593.57+160%-45%12471341
130240.251.030d0.05+1.38+1.410.26+2.41.553.16+157%-50%11341144
131160.252.060d0.05+1.38+1.360.26+2.41.582.91+88%-30%713827
132120.254.030d0.05+1.37+1.500.20+2.61.733.25+98%-30%897958
133160.253.060d0.05+1.37+1.330.31+2.31.573.09+81%-26%724813
134241.004.030d0.05+1.37+1.480.43+2.61.643.87+157%-41%14981885
135120.252.530d0.05+1.37+1.450.16+2.51.652.99+102%-34%9641032
136120.253.030d0.05+1.37+1.420.22+2.41.622.84+99%-35%905967
13760.331.030d0.05+1.37+1.380.31+2.41.613.10+90%-29%10111199
138160.332.060d0.05+1.37+1.410.25+2.41.602.71+103%-38%744885
139240.503.030d0.05+1.36+1.410.46+2.41.563.44+149%-43%13491589
140200.102.014d0.05+1.36+1.450.13+2.51.673.28+93%-28%873626
141240.251.014d0.05+1.36+1.280.33+2.21.422.52+117%-46%14721300
142240.250.530d0.05+1.36+1.410.32+2.41.543.15+163%-52%11561166
143120.331.030d0.05+1.36+1.390.19+2.41.553.19+121%-38%11291271
14460.331.530d0.05+1.35+1.380.33+2.41.623.11+89%-29%9801171
145160.334.060d0.05+1.35+1.390.30+2.41.623.33+90%-27%799921
146120.252.030d0.05+1.35+1.420.19+2.51.622.98+101%-34%9531018
147160.252.560d0.05+1.35+1.310.32+2.31.542.85+83%-29%691820
148160.332.560d0.05+1.35+1.360.31+2.41.572.69+96%-36%736872
149160.670.530d0.05+1.35+1.430.35+2.51.553.40+160%-47%12931667
150160.333.060d0.05+1.35+1.360.38+2.31.582.86+89%-31%724863
15140.671.514d0.05+1.35+1.360.36+2.41.583.73+114%-31%14791862
152120.502.530d0.05+1.34+1.410.16+2.41.573.77+132%-35%12191500
153200.100.230d0.025+1.34+1.390.23+2.41.633.06+92%-30%696576
154240.331.530d0.05+1.34+1.410.25+2.41.543.45+164%-48%13901415
155120.500.830d0.05+1.34+1.420.23+2.51.553.98+153%-38%11931534
156120.250.514d0.05+1.34+1.370.23+2.41.533.36+122%-36%12811194
157240.673.030d0.05+1.34+1.400.44+2.41.553.45+152%-44%14731756
158240.250.230d0.05+1.34+1.420.32+2.51.543.21+166%-52%10931139
159240.250.514d0.05+1.34+1.270.35+2.21.412.42+117%-48%14761313
16040.672.014d0.05+1.34+1.360.39+2.41.593.72+112%-30%13771791
16160.332.030d0.05+1.34+1.370.32+2.41.612.94+88%-30%10481207
162120.250.214d0.05+1.34+1.350.18+2.31.513.29+121%-37%12271183
163240.250.814d0.05+1.33+1.270.33+2.21.422.50+117%-47%14571299
16460.333.014d0.05+1.33+1.340.38+2.31.652.85+82%-29%13271401
165200.100.530d0.025+1.33+1.350.23+2.31.593.02+88%-29%729592
166160.800.830d0.05+1.33+1.430.25+2.51.553.79+170%-45%13881888
167160.250.860d0.05+1.33+1.320.28+2.31.522.51+92%-37%668838
168120.250.814d0.05+1.33+1.330.26+2.31.513.23+118%-36%13031216
169160.331.560d0.05+1.33+1.330.30+2.31.522.35+101%-43%750906
170200.100.830d0.025+1.32+1.340.20+2.31.593.27+87%-27%716585
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230200.104.030d0.025+1.28+1.310.20+2.31.623.71+80%-22% ★707576
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345240.100.8150d0.05+1.22+1.310.19+2.31.482.18+90%-41%371390
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353200.330.830d0.05+1.22+1.270.20+2.21.412.72+145%-53%12371360
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588240.252.060d0.05+1.03+1.030.22+1.81.221.90+84%-44%804873
589200.250.230d0.15+1.03+1.100.13+1.91.261.80+98%-55%641678
59040.800.830d0.05+1.03+1.040.12+1.81.231.91+87%-45%12911763
591200.500.830d0.025+1.03+1.070.40+1.91.222.05+109%-53%14021744
592200.504.030d0.1+1.03+1.070.31+1.91.292.26+85%-38%13391547
593160.670.260d0.05+1.03+1.000.39+1.71.141.68+89%-53%8651196
594200.251.060d0.025+1.02+1.060.20+1.81.252.09+96%-46%836917
595200.251.060d0+1.02+1.070.10+1.81.252.11+97%-46%10911058
596200.250.560d0.1+1.02+1.070.13+1.81.241.86+98%-53%728853
597200.252.030d0.2+1.02+1.170.19+2.01.392.76+87%-31%179208
598200.250.860d0.15+1.02+1.160.16+2.01.331.98+103%-52%447516
599200.501.530d0.15+1.02+1.130.49+2.01.282.18+115%-53%12931636
600200.500.830d0.05+1.02+1.060.43+1.81.201.97+107%-54%13401710
601200.803.030d0.1+1.02+1.070.48+1.91.262.09+96%-46%14081853
602200.672.530d0.1+1.01+1.060.37+1.81.252.08+96%-46%13361695
603200.251.060d0.05+1.01+1.060.21+1.81.242.05+94%-46%798891
604121.003.030d0.05+1.01+1.060.30+1.81.221.89+95%-50%14481957
605200.332.514d0.15+1.01+1.000.25+1.71.171.81+85%-47%14551439
606121.002.030d0.05+1.01+1.070.29+1.81.211.97+102%-52%13441941
607121.002.530d0.05+1.01+1.050.30+1.81.211.92+97%-51%14281983
608200.250.560d0.15+1.01+1.210.13+2.11.372.36+127%-54%710860
609200.331.014d0.2+1.00+1.020.21+1.81.201.62+81%-50%768803
61061.001.5150d0.05+1.00+1.050.27+1.81.231.77+81%-46%577823
611200.500.830d0.1+1.00+1.040.41+1.81.191.95+105%-54%13111691
612200.250.260d0.05+1.00+1.070.11+1.81.231.85+99%-54%754865
613240.251.560d0.05+1.00+1.010.25+1.81.191.76+84%-47%767859
614200.504.030d0.15+1.00+1.100.33+1.91.282.22+95%-43%12261470
615200.250.260d0.025+0.99+1.060.11+1.81.221.84+97%-53%789895
616120.500.560d0.05+0.99+1.030.33+1.81.191.70+89%-53%7881089
617200.251.560d0.025+0.99+1.020.12+1.81.212.02+90%-45%878942
618120.500.860d0.05+0.99+0.990.20+1.71.161.61+84%-52%8211117
619240.500.830d0.05+0.99+0.980.34+1.71.111.74+94%-54%14831786
620240.503.090d0.05+0.99+1.090.22+1.91.291.99+86%-43%859990
621200.251.560d0+0.99+1.020.11+1.81.212.00+90%-45%10941054
622200.250.530d0.15+0.99+0.980.14+1.71.151.62+83%-51%537597
623200.250.260d0+0.98+1.060.09+1.81.231.87+98%-53%10431031
624200.251.560d0.05+0.98+1.040.12+1.81.231.98+92%-46%828906
625200.671.530d0.05+0.98+1.030.46+1.81.181.89+99%-53%14731859
626120.501.060d0.05+0.98+1.000.22+1.71.171.68+85%-50%8501136
627121.001.530d0.05+0.98+1.050.13+1.81.181.89+100%-53%13841991
628200.332.014d0.15+0.98+1.020.32+1.81.211.81+85%-47%14321446
629200.250.860d0.1+0.98+1.100.15+1.91.282.12+100%-47%702810
630200.250.260d0.15+0.97+1.120.12+1.91.282.06+102%-50%661790
631200.250.260d0.1+0.97+1.020.11+1.81.191.66+90%-55%704831
632200.672.030d0.15+0.97+1.060.63+1.81.232.19+101%-46%13781800
633200.672.530d0.2+0.96+1.030.37+1.81.212.07+91%-44%12821731
634200.671.530d0.1+0.96+1.010.44+1.81.161.84+97%-53%13911778
635240.250.8120d0.05+0.96+1.090.27+1.91.231.81+96%-53%583684
636240.250.5120d0.05+0.96+1.100.19+1.91.241.85+100%-54%662770
637200.252.060d0+0.96+0.990.11+1.71.181.86+84%-45%10971039
638200.252.060d0.05+0.96+0.970.20+1.71.171.82+83%-45%785869
639200.251.060d0.1+0.96+1.030.20+1.81.211.81+91%-50%733846
640200.252.060d0.025+0.96+0.980.20+1.71.181.85+83%-45%830899
641200.502.030d0.2+0.95+1.010.33+1.71.171.91+92%-48%10731355
642200.252.530d0.2+0.95+1.110.17+1.91.332.14+81%-38%164199
643161.001.5150d0.05+0.95+1.010.32+1.81.181.79+81%-46%7441006
644200.252.060d0.1+0.95+1.020.21+1.81.211.94+88%-45%738862
645200.800.514d0.2+0.95+1.100.19+1.91.271.91+101%-53%10941606
646200.332.030d0.2+0.95+1.020.16+1.81.201.87+85%-45%582693
647200.802.030d0.2+0.95+1.060.18+1.81.241.80+87%-48%667957
648200.251.514d0.15+0.95+1.070.24+1.81.261.94+87%-45%13361240
649120.500.260d0.05+0.94+0.950.20+1.71.111.48+81%-55%8511178
650200.802.530d0.1+0.94+0.990.31+1.71.171.89+88%-46%14831907
651200.802.530d0.2+0.93+1.010.24+1.81.191.76+87%-49%10651491
652200.672.030d0.2+0.93+0.980.51+1.71.151.83+88%-48%12951730
653200.671.030d0.15+0.93+0.970.46+1.71.111.66+91%-55%13601825
654200.671.530d0.15+0.93+1.010.43+1.81.161.98+98%-50%14231852
655200.502.014d0.2+0.92+0.970.23+1.71.141.48+81%-55%12431469
656200.251.060d0.2+0.91+1.070.12+1.91.261.54+82%-53%82112
657200.502.530d0.2+0.91+1.010.30+1.71.191.99+84%-42%10861400
658240.502.090d0.05+0.90+1.000.19+1.71.191.59+81%-51%8701041
659240.251.0120d0.05+0.90+0.990.23+1.71.151.52+81%-53%591672
660200.251.060d0.15+0.88+1.060.15+1.81.251.66+83%-50%437507
661200.252.060d0.15+0.87+1.040.17+1.81.241.73+86%-50%438513
662200.251.560d0.2+0.86+1.060.25+1.81.251.59+84%-53%107136

5. Backtest gems

For every ticker the curator ever held, its best $ gain (price-driven P&L on the position) across all 1350 sweep settings, and the setting that produced it. A ticker's gain is maximized by the config that weighted it most while it ran (usually high cap, low λ, short lookback). Note the $ figure is compounding-weighted: a late-window winner rides an already-grown balance at up to 100% concentration, so it dwarfs early picks — these are hindsight, in-sample upper bounds, a gem list to build a low-churn strategy around, not a track record. Anchors (SPY/AGG/IAU) excluded.

#tickerbest $ gaindays heldbest settinggain
1AMD$682,95287ws16 · cap1.0/λ1.0/30d
2IONQ$611,206116ws12 · cap1.0/λ0.5/30d
3RKLB$525,348259ws4 · cap1.0/λ0.5/14d
4RGTI$345,996195ws24 · cap0.333/λ1.0/14d
5LEU$326,19839ws16 · cap1.0/λ1.0/30d
6SYM$301,09649ws12 · cap1.0/λ0.5/30d
7SMR$260,348133ws12 · cap1.0/λ0.5/30d
8KTOS$225,07079ws6 · cap1.0/λ0.5/30d
9OKLO$186,380199ws24 · cap0.333/λ1.0/30d
10QUBT$179,946114ws24 · cap0.333/λ1.0/30d
11AVAV$128,007129ws24 · cap0.333/λ1.0/14d
12CCJ$105,664123ws6 · cap0.5/λ1.0/30d
13LMT$98,01883ws16 · cap0.5/λ0.5/30d
14GOOGL$97,52757ws16 · cap1.0/λ1.0/30d
15QCOM$90,26120ws20 · cap1.0/λ4.0/14d
16SMCI$89,07948ws16 · cap1.0/λ1.0/30d
17HOOD$79,501132ws24 · cap0.333/λ2.0/30d
18GEV$78,74267ws24 · cap0.333/λ1.0/30d
19SERV$73,82249ws12 · cap0.5/λ0.5/14d
20LTBR$70,07258ws24 · cap1.0/λ4.0/30d

6. Total return vs optimizer lookback (live config)

A FREE math-replay slice (no re-curation): hold the live watchlist size (16), cap (0.25) and λ (3.0) fixed and vary only the optimizer lookback (trailing days of prices used to estimate μ/Σ). The green bar is the live setting (30d).

7. Total return vs concentration_cap (live config)

Same slice, holding the live watchlist size (16), λ (3.0) and lookback (30d) fixed and varying only the concentration_cap (the per-position max weight). The green bar is the live setting (0.25).

8. Total return vs risk_aversion (live config)

Same slice, holding the live watchlist size (16), cap (0.25) and lookback (30d) fixed and varying only the risk_aversion λ (higher λ = more risk-averse = less concentrated). The green bar is the live setting (λ 3.0).

9. Total return vs min_trade_size_frac (live config)

A FREE math-replay slice (no re-curation): hold the live cap (0.25), λ (3.0), lookback (30d) fixed and vary only the no-trade band — the smallest rebalancing trade the backtest executes, as a fraction of the book. A suppressed trade's dollars are redistributed across the trades that DO clear the band, so the book stays fully invested (Fidelity IRA = zero cost, so no cost model). The green bar is the live setting (0.05). The min_trade axis is swept on the fixed mws 20 anchor (representative; the effect is not watchlist-size-sensitive). A small band can slightly improve return (avoiding whipsaw); too large a band (≥0.15) starves the momentum signal.

10. Portfolio value over time — by max_watchlist_size (vs buy/hold and SPY)

Each re-curated watchlist cap's realized portfolio value on the same pools and starter — the equity-curve view of the section-9 sweep. Tighter (smaller) watchlists concentrate into the top picks; wider ones dilute across more next-wave names.

11. max_watchlist_size sweep

Unlike the cap/λ/lookback knobs above (free math replays on one curation set), max_watchlist_size changes the curator's decisions, so each cap is a separate re-curation (~$0.40 LLM each) on the same news pools and AAPL/GOOGL/AMZN starter. The bar is each curation's total return; the live watchlist size is flagged in green.

12. Total return vs curator model

The same news pools, dates, and canonical config (mws 16 / cap 0.25 / λ 3.0 / 30d), reasoning-OFF for every model — the only variable is the curator LLM. The bar is each model's in-sample backtest return (deployed kimi in green). But return here is hindsight-leaky (the curator could have memorized which 2023–2026 names later won), so the scorecard below ranks by the one metric that owes nothing to hindsight: blind soundness judging.

Curator-model scorecard

Rows ordered by soundness = the mean of a 3-judge non-family panel (gpt-5.4, gemini-3.1-pro-preview, grok-4.5) — none shares a vendor with any candidate, so no self-preference. Each judge reads every add/remove blind (model identity stripped, decisions shuffled, the ticker's later price never shown) and grades whether the rationale + cited news justified the call at the time: a holistic 1–5 plus five pass/fail criteria. ±disp = stdev across the three judges (how much they disagree). This is leak-free. As a cross-check, an independent claude-opus-4-8 judge (not in the panel) ranks the models identically. The backtest columns (return / maxDD / Calmar / IR) are in-sample, secondary; agree = share of weeks the model made the identical call as deployed kimi; ~$/run = estimated LLM cost of a full 79-date curate. 190 decisions judged x 4 judges, ~$3.39.

modelproviderdecisions
(add/rem)
soundness
(1-5)
±dispon-thesisevidencecatalystdisciplinevalid-tickeragree
vs kimi
total
ret
maxDDCalmarIR~$/run
claude-opus-4-8Anthropic25 / 124.41±0.31100%91%77%89%100%54%+572%-29%3.04+1.38~$12.0
claude-sonnet-5Anthropic16 / 34.28±0.36100%91%74%88%100%59%+998%-29%4.23+1.57~$7.2
deepseek-v4-flashOpenRouter48 / 334.03±0.4591%82%68%87%97%41%+431%-33%2.29+1.11~$0.6
kimi-k2.5 (deployed)OpenRouter33 / 203.55±0.5196%65%57%85%87%100%+1023%-25%4.89+1.81~$1.4

Criteria (share of a model's decisions passing each): on-thesis (maps to a named wave) · evidence (cited news actually supports the claim) · catalyst (concrete milestone, not noise) · discipline (buildup-not-crest; a remove is justified, not churn) · valid-ticker (real investable US listing). Soundness is the only leak-free ranking on this page.

13. Portfolio value over time — by curator model (vs buy/hold and SPY)

Each LLM's realized portfolio value on the same pools and profile config, alongside the equal-weight buy/hold starter and SPY. Same idea as the curator DB's plot 1, without the rebalance markers.